YTL Power - 2012 shareholding change in review.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• YTL + family cumulatively disposed of 233M warrants (WB) and 24.4 M shares of YTL Power in the period between March to July 2012.
• EPF's net disposal for the year since March 2012 is approximately 13.5M shares, this pale in comparison.
• Large amount of discounted warrant (733M was offered for sale) traded since Oct has continued to weigh on the price of YTLP since trading.
• Share price has recently show some strength, coincidentally showing purchase by a director's spouse.

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During the past 12 months, YTLP declined from RM1.86 before hitting a trough of RM 1.50 (18/12/12) before recently rebounding past RM 1.60. I have been bullish on the fundamental of YTLP since 2011 and have sat through the volatility in the past 12 months.

Since my last post, I've had the opportunity to digest various market observer's comment on the price decline of YTLP - thanks for the food for thoughts.

Case against Privatisation

Given the privatisation of YTL Cement earlier this year through a share swap and Francis Yeoh's repeated broadcast of his desire to privatise YTLP, I was suspicious about a possibility of a similar privatisation through share swap involving YTLP.

However, Felicity has pointed out a very obvious fact that it is unlikely for YTL to dispose off the warrant into the market then buying it back within a short period. Yeah, they are not stupid people.

It was interesting looking at the analysis after the fact.

Price movement vs Shareholding movement

Firstly, let me apologise for the indicators on my graph - if anyone have a suggestion for a software for Mac to do a better job in editing the graph - I am all ears!

I've extracted some raw shareholding change information here.

Looking at the information extracted a few events was notable to me:

• Event A - Francis Yeoh disposed off 21 Millions share in YTLP @ approximately RM 1.83

• Event B - Between 26/3/2012 to 21/5/2012 - YTL Corp disposed off a total of 231,526,365 YTLP-WB at price range of approximately RM0.63 to RM 0.39. 

• Event C - Short rebound, director and spouse disposed off 3,393,541 YTLP shares and 1,450,000 WB
• Event D - 18 Sept, offer for sale to YTL shareholder WB of YTL at RM 0.20 (61% discount to 5dwa). (Initial announcement on proposal made May 29)
• Event E - Trading of YTL post WB entitlement, reaching a support of RM1.50.

Other notable event?

- There was notice of various grants of options in August with acceptance date of option in June.

- A spouse of director has recently began acquiring YTLP shares at around RM 1.53- RM 1.59, after disposing the same share in June/July for around RM 1.76-RM1.80.

- Total disposal by EPF between 1 March 2012 to 31/12/2012 is 13,459,400 shares in YTLP. This pale in comparison with the 24 million shares and 233 million WB disposed off by YTL and family.

Conclusion

- There was an unusually large amount of disposal of warrants/share by YTL+family in the first half of 2012 that led to decline in YTLP shares/WB price.

- Subsequent to entitlement of discounted warrant by YTL shareholder on 2 Oct 2012, price of its mother share continued to decline before finding a support @ RM1.50.

- Insider has began acquiring YTLP shares at approximately RM 1.53 - RM1.59 after disposing it earlier.

Note (joke): To me the fact that a spouse of a director acquiring the share of YTLP seems to be a very Malaysia specific buy signal. (After assessing the fundamental).