Wednesday 9 January 2013

Herbalife - update 1

Herbalife popped to almost USD 42 (9%?) before settling back below $40s after Dan Loeb (another Hedge Funder) join this epic showdown of titans with his 8% acquisition of HLF.

Today's herbalife trading chart
  • Dan Loeb's fund was one of the best performer in 2012 (Ackman's will be in a loss position after fees).
  • Loeb made a successful bet on the Greeks bond market & shaped up the management team at Yahoo in 2012 (Ackman made an awful bet with JC Penney)

Loeb's fund took a 8% passive stake (cf. Ackman's 20% active short) in HLF. His reputation is stellar compared to Ackman's. While I've mentioned the other 2 hedgefund invested are relatively nobody compared to Ackman. In this case, Ackman is the relative nobody compared to Loeb.

I like the fundamental (approx. 12% FCF yield) of this company, the share tanked following Ackman's presentation - but it has increased 65% since it bottomed out @ approx $24. I don't believe it is a Ponzi scheme, I believe valuation should normalised after this battle is over.

In this long vs short battlefield, someone is going to get hurt real bad.

Currently it is trading at

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