My initial conclusion back in 2010 at the inception of these printing was the same.. it's going to be as inflationary as in Germany post WW1. However 5 years following the first QE, there's still no inflation.. then I came across some smart economist pointing out that all these extra money is basically absorbed by the bank in increase reserve.. it make sense, if the money printing were to be inflationary - the effect should have been apparent almost immediately.
I put forward an alternate view to why money printing is not inflationary.
An alternate view
Econ 101 taught us printing of money lead to increase supply
which will lead to a debasement of the currency.
HOWEVER
- Quantitative easing is merely a form of monetary policy that
increases LIQUIDITY in the banking system.
- Liquidity of the banking system is separate and distinct
from credit growth and availability. The monetary policy can only influence the
PRICE of the lending.
How monetary transmission mechanism work in reality |
- The main determinant of credit growth is RISK APPETITE:
whether banks want to lend and whether companies/consumer want to borrow. Companies are hoarding a record amount of cash.
- According to Bernanke, the objective of QE is to maintain low long term interest
rate
- A byproduct of this low rate is a gradual healing of household balance sheet in the US and of the government itself
- Reality is that quantitative easing merely swaps bank
reserves for US treasury
Interesting read:
1) http://www.voxeu.org/article/central-bank-reserve-creation-era-negative-money-multipliers
2) http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2010/201041/201041pap.pdf
2) http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2010/201041/201041pap.pdf
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